The current fertility rate in the northern hemisphere doesn\u2019t guarantee generational replacement, which may lead to numerous problems in coming decades and ultimately necessitate reorganized social structures. Clearly, changes lie ahead, but not necessarily for the worse: the sustained decline in birth rates may also result in a shift from excessive consumption and the compulsion for unlimited growth, towards a focus on improved quality of life.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
By the end of the 1960s, the world had about 3.5 billion people and demographers predicted a surge while wondering whether the planet’s ecosystem could withstand the forthcoming changes. After a period of severe famine in China, its population exploded, with an annual growth rate of around 2.7 percent, resulting in some 20 million births per year. Even higher growth rates were observed in countries in the Middle East, Africa, and South America.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In response to this global demographic trend, the groundbreaking book The Population Bomb<\/em> by biologists Paul and Anne Howland Ehrlich was published in 1968. Their key thesis addresses threats from population growth and accompanying excessive consumption. According to the Ehrlichs, uncontrolled population growth leads our civilization to limits beyond which lies risks of global famine and environmental poisoning, potentially leading to the sixth mass extinction of biological diversity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In a sense, this theory is a modernized version of the population theory proposed by the seventeenth-century philosopher Thomas Malthus. The essence of Malthus\u2019 concept lies in the difference between two determining factors of human population: the self-regulating force of demographic expansion and limitations imposed by food production. In short, food production always lags behind exponentially growing desires for economic growth. Today, after significant achievements in agriculture, the problem is different: it isn\u2019t the lack of food but environmental damage accompanying mass plant cultivation and animal husbandry. The Population Bomb<\/em> has become a bible for many ecological organizations, with excerpts easily found in high school textbooks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A wide range of scientists also saw the issue of population threat. In the early 1990s, the \u201cWorld Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice\u201d was released, signed by over 1,700 leading international scientists, including over half of the living Nobel laureates in science. The warning states: \u201cHuman beings and the natural world are on a collision course. Human activities inflict harsh and often irreversible damage on the environment.\u201d The document also addresses the issue of demography: <\/p>\n\n\n\n The size of the threat is primarily due to human population size and the accompanying per capita consumption of resources. The increase in human numbers and the associated increase in production and waste have exceeded environmental limits. Humanity is pressing against the limits of the natural world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Although there are currently 7.8 billion people on earth, over twice as many as when The Population Bomb<\/em> was published, mainstream media rarely mentions dystopian narratives about overpopulation anymore. Instead, these have been replaced by information about advancing depopulation, declining birth rates, and the growing birth gap. The demographic gap over the next 30 years could lead to the collapse of retirement and healthcare systems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n One can\u2019t remain indifferent to alarming reports that indicate a growing demographic gap. In Poland, for example, the central statistical office’s report (Statistics Poland<\/em>) reveals that only 305,000 children were born in 2022, which is the lowest result recorded since such measurements have been compiled. This indicates an exceptionally low fertility rate, a woman\u2019s average number of births during her reproductive years (15\u201349 years). A value between 2.10 and 2.15 ensures generational replacement, by which parents need to have an average of two children for a country’s population to remain stable. The Polish fertility rate is 1.46, while the European average is 1.49. The UN predicts that human population could decrease by half by the end of this century. The problem of declining population is particularly evident in countries such as Japan and South Korea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Read also:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n