{"id":14902,"date":"2025-10-06T17:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-06T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/holistic.news\/en\/?p=14902"},"modified":"2026-03-27T14:37:37","modified_gmt":"2026-03-27T13:37:37","slug":"asteroid-to-hit-the-moon-nasa-rescue-plans","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/holistic.news\/en\/asteroid-to-hit-the-moon-nasa-rescue-plans\/","title":{"rendered":"Seven years to decide: NASA\u2019s playbook for a lunar threat"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-why-should-we-worry\">Why should we worry?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Asteroid <strong>2024 YR4<\/strong> had, less than a year ago, a <strong>3.1 percent<\/strong> chance of hitting Earth. At first glance that seems low, yet it was the highest probability of such an event ever calculated. The object then altered its course. Its current chance of colliding with our planet is just <strong>0.004 percent<\/strong>. Far more likely, according to NASA, is a strike on the Moon \u2014 a <strong>4.3 percent<\/strong> probability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It might seem that an impact on the Moon is not our problem. There are unlikely to be permanent lunar bases in 2032. The issue is what comes next. An asteroid roughly <strong>60 metres<\/strong> across would generate a vast debris field. The number of micrometeoroids hitting Earth could increase by up to a <strong>thousandfold<\/strong> for several days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It would be a spectacle \u2014 the greatest meteor shower in centuries \u2014 but also a hazard for satellites in orbit and astronauts aboard space stations. If the ISS is still operating in 2032, the crew could face serious risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-nasa-s-options-for-asteroid-to-hit-the-moon\">NASA\u2019s options for \u2018asteroid to hit the Moon\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>A team of NASA researchers and several US universities has outlined two <a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/2509.12351\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">scenarios<\/a>. The first is a <strong>gentle deflection<\/strong> of the trajectory. A small impulse would be enough for the asteroid to miss both Earth and the Moon. The earlier we act, the smaller the correction needed. The catch: we must <strong>know the mass<\/strong> of 2024 YR4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The object\u2019s diameter is about <strong>60 metres<\/strong> with a <strong>10 percent<\/strong> margin of error. Mass is harder to estimate. Without knowing the density, we can only guess \u2014 from <strong>51 million<\/strong> to more than <strong>711 million kilograms<\/strong>. A miscalculated push could make things worse. What if we nudge the asteroid <strong>towards Earth<\/strong>?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>NASA is weighing a <a href=\"https:\/\/holistic.news\/en\/planetary-defense-nasa-learns-to-strike-back\/\">rescue mission<\/a>. The ideal moment to launch a <strong>reconnaissance probe<\/strong> would be <strong>2028<\/strong>. Just three years to design and launch a mission from scratch? Humanity has never done it so fast. Researchers admit 2024 YR4 probably does not pose a large enough threat to start such an operation. An alternative is <strong>retasking existing missions<\/strong>, sacrificing original science goals. Is it worth it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-a-rescue-mission-and-the-nuclear-option\">A rescue mission \u2014 and the nuclear option<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If deflection fails, there is <strong>destruction<\/strong>. We could hit the asteroid with something massive enough to shatter it into fragments of around <strong>10 metres<\/strong>. Difficult, but technically feasible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is another option that will stir 1990s cinema nostalgia \u2014 a <strong>nuclear device<\/strong>. Think <em>Armageddon<\/em>, minus Bruce Willis. A nuclear detonation at the right altitude above 2024 YR4\u2019s surface could save the Moon. According to researchers, a <strong>1-megaton<\/strong> device would suffice to destroy 2024 YR4 regardless of its internal structure \u2014 and that is within today\u2019s nuclear arsenals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Read how astronomers found<\/strong> an <a href=\"https:\/\/holistic.news\/en\/an-earth-like-planet-discovered-only-41-light-years\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Earth-like planet<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-next-and-when-will-we-know\">What next \u2014 and when will we know?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Will <strong>2024 YR4<\/strong> actually hit the Moon? We should know in <strong>2028<\/strong>, when astronomers refine their calculations. For now, the probability stands at <strong>4 percent<\/strong>. Low \u2014 but we must be ready for the consequences. And the window for a decision is narrowing. <strong>Can we stop the asteroid in time?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Read this article in Polish:<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/holistic.news\/asteroida-uderzy-ksiezyc-nasa\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Czy uderzenie w Ksi\u0119\u017cyc zagrozi Ziemi? NASA szykuje misj\u0119 ratunkow\u0105<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There is a 4.3 percent chance of a lunar strike in December 2032. Once on course for Earth, the asteroid veered off. NASA plans \u2018asteroid to hit the Moon\u2019 missions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":275,"featured_media":14903,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[435],"tags":[1422,1300,1214,939,1884,1288,133,1291,1883],"class_list":["post-14902","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-science","tag-asteroid","tag-astronomy","tag-cosmos","tag-earth","tag-lunar-impact","tag-moon","tag-nasa","tag-space","tag-space-debris"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.4 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Asteroid to hit the Moon? NASA weighs rescue plans<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Odds point to a 4.3 percent lunar impact in 2032. 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