Is Our Demographic Gap Just Another Dystopia About the Planet?

The current fertility rate in the northern hemisphere doesn’t guarantee generational replacement, which may lead to numerous problems in coming decades and ultimately necessitate reorganized social structures. Clearly, changes lie ahead, but not necessarily for the worse: the sustained decline in birth rates may also result in a shift from excessive consumption and the compulsion for unlimited growth, towards a focus on improved quality of life.

How Many People Can Live on Earth?

By the end of the 1960s, the world had about 3.5 billion people and demographers predicted a surge while wondering whether the planet’s ecosystem could withstand the forthcoming changes. After a period of severe famine in China, its population exploded, with an annual growth rate of around 2.7 percent, resulting in some 20 million births per year. Even higher growth rates were observed in countries in the Middle East, Africa, and South America.

In response to this global demographic trend, the groundbreaking book The Population Bomb by biologists Paul and Anne Howland Ehrlich was published in 1968. Their key thesis addresses threats from population growth and accompanying excessive consumption. According to the Ehrlichs, uncontrolled population growth leads our civilization to limits beyond which lies risks of global famine and environmental poisoning, potentially leading to the sixth mass extinction of biological diversity.

In a sense, this theory is a modernized version of the population theory proposed by the seventeenth-century philosopher Thomas Malthus. The essence of Malthus’ concept lies in the difference between two determining factors of human population: the self-regulating force of demographic expansion and limitations imposed by food production. In short, food production always lags behind exponentially growing desires for economic growth. Today, after significant achievements in agriculture, the problem is different: it isn’t the lack of food but environmental damage accompanying mass plant cultivation and animal husbandry. The Population Bomb has become a bible for many ecological organizations, with excerpts easily found in high school textbooks.

A wide range of scientists also saw the issue of population threat. In the early 1990s, the “World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice” was released, signed by over 1,700 leading international scientists, including over half of the living Nobel laureates in science. The warning states: “Human beings and the natural world are on a collision course. Human activities inflict harsh and often irreversible damage on the environment.” The document also addresses the issue of demography: 

The size of the threat is primarily due to human population size and the accompanying per capita consumption of resources. The increase in human numbers and the associated increase in production and waste have exceeded environmental limits. Humanity is pressing against the limits of the natural world.

Although there are currently 7.8 billion people on earth, over twice as many as when The Population Bomb was published, mainstream media rarely mentions dystopian narratives about overpopulation anymore. Instead, these have been replaced by information about advancing depopulation, declining birth rates, and the growing birth gap. The demographic gap over the next 30 years could lead to the collapse of retirement and healthcare systems.

One can’t remain indifferent to alarming reports that indicate a growing demographic gap. In Poland, for example, the central statistical office’s report (Statistics Poland) reveals that only 305,000 children were born in 2022, which is the lowest result recorded since such measurements have been compiled. This indicates an exceptionally low fertility rate, a woman’s average number of births during her reproductive years (15–49 years). A value between 2.10 and 2.15 ensures generational replacement, by which parents need to have an average of two children for a country’s population to remain stable. The Polish fertility rate is 1.46, while the European average is 1.49. The UN predicts that human population could decrease by half by the end of this century. The problem of declining population is particularly evident in countries such as Japan and South Korea.

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It is extremely difficult to pinpoint the main factor for fertility-rate decline. This worrying trend is attributed to phenomena characteristic of highly developed countries. These primarily involve actions to increase gender equality and fears associated with having children, which lead young couples to delay having their first child. The journalist Derek Thompson refers to this as the liberal “doom loop,” which combines three trends: low birth rates, a rise in xenophobic immigration policies, and weakening social policies. According to Thompson, these problems interact, with wealthy countries with low fertility rates usually pursuing more open immigration policies to increase their labor force. Increasing numbers of migrants, in turn, become a fertile ground for xenophobia, which threatens egalitarian social policies.

Liberal politicians identify weak social policies, an unstable job market, and the lack of housing programs for young parents as the main causes of declining fertility. Conservative commentators, though, attribute the responsibility for childlessness to cultural and social issues, including weakening marital stability, the breakdown of intergenerational bonds, and social atomization. It seems that the most sensible solution for countries affected by childlessness is to pursue a multidimensional policy that includes material and cultural issues in its basket of demands. Paradoxically, countries with the weakest pro-family policies in Europe, such as Romania, have the highest fertility rates. Since 2010, that country’s authorities have been lagging behind in terms of social expenditure as a percentage of gross domestic product.

Interestingly, public-opinion surveys conducted in many countries indicate that young people do plan to have children. For example, in the 2022 survey conducted by the Public Opinion Research Center (CBOS) in Poland, only 7 percent of respondents didn’t intend to have children, while 46 percent wanted to have two children. The actual percentage of women without children there is currently about 25 percent, one of the highest rates in Europe. This contradiction has been referred to as “involuntary childlessness” by Jordan Peterson, the clinical psychologist and conservative commentator, analogous to the phenomenon of “involuntary celibacy’ (incel) among men: the inability to find a romantic and sexual partner despite the desire to find one.

Consequences of Population Decline

Media often depict images of empty cradles, abandoned homes, and visions of lonely retirees, but the issue is also approached more proactively. For instance, the food company Kraft Heinz, with products including baby food, decided to take matters into its hands and address the demographic situation. Along with a short dystopian mockumentary showing the birth of the last Italian, Kraft Heinz launched the Adamo 2050 project. The campaign aims to gather signatures for an appeal for changes to support parenthood. Similar initiatives have also been conducted in Japan, China, and Singapore, but those have not yielded significant results.

And in 2021, Stephen J. Shaw, a computer engineer and data researcher, produced the documentary Birthgap – Childless World and established an organization whose statutory goal is to “support the global community in the crisis of childlessness”. Shaw emphasizes the comparison between the number of people in the generation that is currently around 50 and current birth statistics. This approach helps in visualizing the problem humanity will face in about 20 years. The current generation of 50-year-olds in countries including Italy and Japan is over twice the size of the number of children being born there. Sustaining such a trend could lead to the collapse of the retirement system. A low natural growth rate also leads to a reduced economic pie to be sliced, leading in the long term to wealth consolidation.

Aging societies can be particularly challenging for middle-income countries. In the past, as industrialized nations became wealthier, the workforce grew faster than the number of nonworking individuals, providing what is referred to as the “demographic dividend”. Today, for countries like Poland, the decrease in the number of working-age people indicates that the period of this “dividend” is ending, and its effects will certainly be felt by the economy.

Should we be concerned about declining fertility?

The problem of declining population in developed countries can’t be ignored as it concerns our common future and prosperity we want to secure. Nevertheless, if the trend of declining birth rates continues, it is evident that changes await us. Yet are these changes going to be only for the worse?

A positive scenario involves abandoning excessive consumption and the idea of unlimited growth and focusing instead on improving quality of life. Rather than relying solely on GDP, nations could strive to improve the Human Development Index (HDI), which takes into account life expectancy as well as access to education. Further, a lower number of working-age people results in reduced unemployment and improves employees’ position in relations with employers. Full employment ensures income and the ability to lead a dignified life, also for people with lower vocational qualifications. Dystopian narratives about abandoned cities and empty maternity wards are a dubious way of conducting effective debate. Instead, it’s worth considering whether the current state of fertility is due solely to the later age at which women have their first child. It is essential to focus on solutions encompassed in a broadly defined social policy. Some of these solutions may seem distant and unrealistic – for instance, Universal Basic Income (UBI). However, in the face of forthcoming changes, these may prove to be invaluable tools.

Demographic transformations being seen today bring challenges and bring opportunities. In light of the increased decline in fertility rates and potential challenges posed by demographic changes, there is an unquestionably urgent need to take decisive action. Key to this is examining reasons behind this trend and taking appropriate steps. While the contemporary debate surrounding decreasing fertility rates can evoke dystopian visions of the future, it is noteworthy that there is also a positive scenario for that future. Rather than focusing on perceived problems that accompany this change, we should strive to recognize positive aspects of forthcoming transformations: it may just be our chance to transition from mindless consumerism to a society focused on values, well-being, and a more ecologically conscious approach to life.

Sources:

1. Demographic data
2. Concise Statistical Yearbook of Poland (GUS)
3. United Nations News: “World population to reach 8 billion this year, as growth rate slows” (2022)
4. Derek Thompson, The Atlantic: “The Doom Loop of Modern Liberalism” (2017)